Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 26.328279 29.297039 32.709642 36.984098 42.287124 48.783230 57.569148
2025-02-16 22.012995 25.891787 30.821475 37.798619 47.904498 62.969541 89.594190
2025-02-23 19.009984 23.340261 29.307907 38.712166 54.573563 84.176941 161.326023
2025-03-02 16.787319 21.325002 28.008182 39.590397 62.287923 117.409067 395.095242
2025-03-09 14.989701 19.547209 26.622488 39.909742 69.877233 168.180516 2771.858383
2025-03-16 13.718831 18.313131 25.797225 40.988895 80.826851 278.728275 NaN
2025-03-23 12.550081 17.041827 24.626589 40.991904 89.901301 489.815813 NaN
2025-03-30 11.678283 16.113219 23.862292 41.627417 102.883871 1323.147933 NaN
2025-04-06 10.972078 15.356738 23.259910 42.452442 119.398248 79059.762667 NaN
2025-04-13 10.504596 14.939090 23.219600 44.753992 150.551896 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 9.840548 14.097771 22.179182 43.902752 163.031458 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 9.363096 13.537243 21.627140 44.326239 189.930030 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 8.944357 13.076588 21.292311 45.638237 242.059180 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 8.477692 12.488565 20.604343 45.607238 289.552142 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 8.084455 12.004020 20.083594 46.049534 368.618334 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 7.739250 11.579611 19.640316 46.668752 497.425149 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 7.401807 11.140525 19.099591 46.713302 663.935990 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 7.143763 10.833394 18.831592 47.858133 1133.903213 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 6.857644 10.447073 18.314705 47.684950 1786.705816 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 6.629422 10.157921 18.001950 48.382910 4858.992475 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 6.429382 9.909449 17.758523 49.361372 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 6.301482 9.796643 17.851074 52.276924 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 6.068072 9.449762 17.275829 51.132712 NaN NaN NaN